Image Credits - Sultan Ishtiaque, 'July Revolution Series'
A prime minister on the run, the country tumbling into the hands of a Nobel laureate, turn to old military ways. Does anyone else feel the Déjà vu? Is Sheikh Hasina gone? Does the new regime begin?
Floods of questions have hit the media after the interesting turn of affairs in our neighbouring country. While the whole story is up for speculation, the question is, what is in it for India?
Sheikh Hasina, navigating a period of significant political and economic turmoil, in recent years saw rising concerns over her increasingly authoritarian rule. Allegations of human rights violations, media censorship, and the suppression of political opposition have drawn both domestic and international criticism. The space for discontent in politics shrank over the years. Mounting pressure to address these challenges erupted in the form of the recent mass unrest.
Economic disparity, food insecurity, rampant corruption, such factors stemmed from the stagnated political system. Hasina’s lack of legitimacy, dominating tendencies and underwhelming human rights record indicated that beneath her secular outlook - there was perhaps, a lack of democratic freedoms which fuelled dissent. Misreading her surroundings, she erred, miscalculating the sentiments which were developing and would soon lead to her fall.
In August 2024, the country witnessed one of the most significant upheavals in recent times. The clash which was triggered by quotas for descendants of the liberation war government job. Many point out her personal attachment to it as the quota was introduced by her late father Sheikh Mujib, but this move backfired and led to a mass agitation. The house of cards that the ‘Iron Lady’ of Bangladesh had built came crashing down.
What began as a student protest against the longest-serving Prime Minister of the nation had thrown the subcontinent into great turmoil.
Sharing a massive land border of over 4,000 kilometres, it is important to maintain stability and avoid insurgent activities in the northeast along with the issue of migrants, which is already much-contested. The bilateral trade between the two reached $13 billion in the financial year 2023-24, with Bangladesh being the top destination for India's exports and a significant importer in return.
Image Credits - timescontent.timesgroup
Events ultimately point out to the complex geopolitical situation underway with many powers rising to the landscape. Bangladesh and India, who have been closely linked for the past decades, are on thin ice. India has viewed Bangladesh as a key partner in maintaining stability and socio cultural political alliance in the South East Asia region specially with China threatening to expand. The crisis might jeopardise India’s eminent position as a rising power.
The deposition of Hasina was a moment for celebration in Dhaka but it sounded alarm bells in New Delhi.
It has more or less created a formidable diplomatic crisis.
Prime Minister Modi was swift to congratulate the new government led by Muhammad Yunus, and so was China. The power shift can be detrimental to India’s interests. Moreover, deterioration in Bangladesh’s internal situation could provide opportunities for extremist groups to gain a foothold, posing ethnic and security risks for India. The crisis in Bangladesh has significant implications for India, given the close geographic, economic, and historical cultural ties between the two countries. Political instability in Bangladesh could lead to increased cross-border tensions, particularly concerning illegal migration and military issues. Economically, disruptions in Bangladesh could affect trade relations, as the two nations are crucial trading partners.
Following the transition, Hasina fled and now resides in New Delhi, since then increasing concerns have been raised regarding the policies of the interim government. The revolt in Bangladesh brings up a number of headaches.
Is it perhaps time that India revises its stance on the Bangladesh question? With China and the US keenly eyeing trade and political proliferation after the change of power, what is India’s counter to it?
A rising anti-India sentiment seemed evident and raging. Although the interim government has not officially requested Sheikh Hasina’s extradition, the idea seems obvious. In contrast to Hasina, the new government is harnessing the main Islamist party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, to play a role in domestic power plays. All of this points to Indian concern over the status of Hindus and other ethnic minorities living in Bangladesh, a majority Muslim country. Indian social media has recently been awash in videos allegedly showing physical attacks on Hindus, and some believe a genocide is already underway in the country.
And lastly, India wishes not to let China manoeuvre ahead in the game. If Bangladesh shifts towards China it would lead to a strategic dilemma on the cost of losing defensive advances. Its closeness with Pakistan is already limiting India in Asia and it appears Bangladesh might add on.
While India’s worries are reasonable, the challenges certainly are not invincible, especially if we tread carefully.
Having played a major role in the very foundation of the neighbouring country in 1971 - India has fostered cordial relations with Bangladesh for much of its history; corroborating on several issues and a vibrant exchange of views. A spur of bilateral activities which were evident under the Sheikh Hasina regime on defences, power projects, economic commercial development, security and borders have faced a setback and need to be rebuilt. As Prime Minister Modi, back in term for a third time, stated ‘Bangladesh is situated at the confluence of our Neighbourhood First Policy, Act East Policy, Vision Sagar, and Indo-Pacific Vision’.
Another factor is India’s acceptance of all types of government, most recently Afghanistan and Maldives as well which has shown a tendency towards China. With recent talks underway, hope for the restoration of previously positive relations is perhaps possible.
Since its establishment, the country has been swinging between the reins of a democratic or Islamic republic. India is likely to look towards organisations, regional and international, in its conquest to rescue its supreme position in southeast Asia. Further, strengthening economic ties, keeping in mind that Bangladesh is our biggest partner in commercial ways, could help to keep them at bay from siding with Pakistan and importantly China.
As rightly put forward by the Minister for External Affairs, S. Jaishankar, India and Bangladesh are largely ‘dependent on each other’, he emphasised that India wants stable relations intact with the new government as well. Further, he added that the crisis is an internal one and reiterated the ties between the two nations while giving a brief account of the events starting from the election where Sheikh Hasina was re-elected.
Even though Yunus talks of free and fair relationships, there is still frostiness. India certainly is on the lookout for mutuality of interests, as the two countries are entering a more volatile complex phase of correspondence.
But from the Bangladeshi point of view, India has been for long in the wrong boat.
By Niharika Singh
I am a second-year undergraduate student pursuing History from the University of Delhi. An avid reader, she is always up for a conversation ranging from Marxism to Fascism, Ancient Greece to Renaissance and Absolutism, anything everything related to History, Politics and Sociology.
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